Transition to Hybrid Cars
(3) CommentsTransitions don’t happen over night. When you compare total energy costs of hummers to hybrid cars today, as Art Spinella from CNW Marketing Research did, you find that the hybrids cost twice as much per mile driven. Hummer drivers rejoiced at this news, because they didn’t listen to the rest of the analysis.
From hybridcars.com:
If reporters had dug a little deeper, they would have clearly seen what the podcast interview exposed: the Hummer H3 looks a whole lot better than the hybrids because it uses “crude old technology that has long ago been paid for,” according to Spinella. On the other hand, the hybrids are new and complex, and the cost of the R&D energy required to make the necessary transformation of our cars from oversized, high-emissions gas guzzlers to something new and better has not yet been amortized over any significant period of time.
Podcaster Ben Kenney asked if the results from the study would be different if conducted again in 10 years. Spinella responded:
“It would be totally different in three years. The hybrids will look significantly better. The new hybrids they are developing now�the new ones that I’ve seen, Prius III and Prius IV�are so much more simplified. They’ll do what the current versions do, but with far less complexity, lighter motors, more recyclable parts, and longer lasting components. The current Prius, for all intents and purposes, will be the Model T.”
This phenomenon is something to keep in mind when considering the bickering that will accompany the transformation of energy sources from one type of power plant to another.
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For a more in depth discussion, start a thread in the forums.Never mind hybrids. How about BEVs—Battery Electric Vehicles? AKA pure electric? Not imaginary, but not in huge numbers, yet. Tesla Motors has 300+ 125 mph Roadsters delivered, with deliveries ramping up past 50/mo. this year. Almost 1500 sold at base $109,000; running costs around 2¢/mi, depending on your local power rate. Range is 200 mi+ per charge, which covers virtually all commuting ranges. And battery tech has finally hit a breakthrough point, with developments coming fast and furious.
The current batteries will go about 100,000 mi before replacement. The cost of that would be about $20,000, but within the 5 yrs that would take to occur, batteries are likely to leap ahead in range and drop significantly in cost, perhaps by a factor of 5 or more.
Furthermore, by the end of 2011, the 2-seater Roadster will be joined on the road by the 5+2-seater Model S, at less than half the price. Speed the same, range somewhat less or more, depending on battery configuration chosen. Sales are moving very fast; 900+ in a few weeks of unveiling.
Check it out. http://www.teslamotors.com
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